Updating Your Beliefs

Probability · Axiom Academy

Discover how new information changes what we think will happen. It's Saturday morning, and you're wondering: will it rain today? Check the current conditions and make your initial prediction. You just checked your weather app and got some new information. Watch how this changes things. What if we keep getting more updates? See how your belief evolves with each new piece of information. When you get new information, you should update your beliefs. The probability of an event can change dramatically when you learn something relevant about the situation. Start with your initial belief (prior) → Get new evidence → Update to a new belief (posterior). This cycle can repeat as you gather more information. This isn't just about weather! Doctors update diagnoses with test results, investors update predictions with market news, and algorithms update recommendations based on your behavior.

This is the written version of the interactive lesson above. See the full Probability course.